Maximum productivity of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) based on the dynamics of its aquatic state

Andrés Fraguela, Carlos D. Ponce, Juan C. Hernández-Gómez and José M. Sigarreta

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2026, vol. 242, issue C, 244-269

Abstract: This paper develops a mathematical framework to estimate the average productivity of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in artificial breeding sites, focusing on open household water-storage containers typical of areas with limited access to piped water. We introduce the effective larval displacement volume and, using data from a controlled experiment conducted under climatic conditions favorable for mosquito larval development, derive stage-specific carrying capacities as functions of container dimensions and water volume. The mosquito life cycle is represented by a dynamic population model with seven biologically grounded stages (egg, four larval instars, pupa, and adult) that incorporates nonlinear oviposition, asynchronous hatching, and density-dependent larval competition. Assuming favorable climatic conditions the model admits a unique, globally asymptotically stable equilibrium, so the equilibrium adult population provides a robust measure of breeding-site productivity. From this equilibrium we obtain a closed-form approximation for average adult productivity in terms of water-column height and container perimeter, and apply it to storage containers commonly used in Latin-America: buckets, plastic barrels, water tanks, and cement storage piles. The results indicate that productivity varies only weakly with container size, suggesting that consolidating stored water into a single large container, rather than several smaller ones, may reduce overall mosquito emergence. Because all estimates are derived under optimal environmental and water-quality conditions, they should be interpreted as upper bounds for productivity under less favorable or adverse settings, a distinction that is essential for real-world vector-control planning. Overall, the proposed approach offers an operational tool for quantifying productivity in domestic water-storage breeding sites.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti; Mosquito productivity; Larval competition; Mathematical modeling; Dengue control; Population dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475425004975
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:242:y:2026:i:c:p:244-269

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2025.11.032

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM) is currently edited by Robert Beauwens

More articles in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM) from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().