How has volatility in metals markets changed?
Clinton Watkins and
Michael McAleer
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2008, vol. 78, issue 2, 237-249
Abstract:
Within the industrial metals industry, there has been a great deal of interest surrounding trends in metals market volatility over time. This paper uses a rolling AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model to estimate and forecast the volatility processes for daily returns on the futures prices of two important non-ferrous metals, namely aluminium and copper. The rolling models are used to examine how the processes driving aluminium and copper returns volatility have evolved over a long sample. The variation over time seen in the volatility processes, as modelled by GARCH, suggest that, while volatility in returns has not necessarily increased, the conditional volatility process in metals markets is itself time-varying when analysed over a long horizon.
Keywords: Volatility forecasting; GARCH; Rolling models; Futures contract; Industrial metals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475408000347
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:237-249
DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.015
Access Statistics for this article
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM) is currently edited by Robert Beauwens
More articles in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM) from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().