A risk map of international tourist regions in Spain

Ana Bartolomé, Michael McAleer, Vicente Ramos and Javier Rey-Maquieira

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2009, vol. 79, issue 9, 2741-2758

Abstract: This paper presents a different approach to tourism research at the regional level. Financial econometric techniques are applied to international tourist arrivals, as well as their volatilities, in the five main tourist regions in Spain, using monthly international tourist arrivals during 1997–2007. Univariate time series models are estimated for the conditional means of monthly international tourist arrivals and their volatilities. The estimated conditional volatility models are GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1). Both the second moment and log-moment conditions are calculated to provide diagnostic checks of the estimated models. The conditional mean estimates are generally statistically adequate, and the inferences are valid.

Keywords: International tourist arrivals; Regional analysis; Seasonality; Spatial aggregation; Time-varying volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G R (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:79:y:2009:i:9:p:2741-2758

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.10.010

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