Randomness in a mathematical model for the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)

Abraham J. Arenas, Gilberto González-Parra and Lucas Jódar

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2010, vol. 80, issue 5, 971-981

Abstract: In this paper we study the dynamics of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in human populations using random differential equation systems. Since initial conditions and some parameters of a RSV mathematical model are subject to some degree of uncertainty, randomness on the model are introduced. In order to modeling these uncertainties some probability distributions functions are assumed for initial conditions and parameters. Monte Carlo method is applied to investigate the effect of parameters and initial conditions uncertainties on the dynamics behavior of the infected and recovered populations. In addition numerical predictions for the future dynamics of RSV transmission in the population from the Spanish region of Valencia are obtained using confidence intervals and expected mean values for the infected and recovered populations are also obtained.

Keywords: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); Random differential equation; Epidemic compartmental model; Monte Carlo method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:80:y:2010:i:5:p:971-981

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2009.12.001

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