How do U.S. visa policies affect unauthorized immigration?

Brian Kovak and Rebecca Lessem

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, vol. 113, issue C, 92-108

Abstract: How would increasing the number of visas available to potential migrants affect unauthorized immigration from Mexico to the U.S.? Current U.S. policy bans people who are deported from receiving legal status for a period of time. This policy aims to serve as an additional deterrent to unauthorized immigration, but may be ineffective given that most potential Mexican migrants have an extremely low probability of ever being able to legally move to the U.S. We develop a dynamic discrete location choice model, which we estimate using data from the Mexican Migration Project, and consider various counterfactual policies that vary the intensity of enforcement and access to work visas. We find that legal entry bans for deported individuals are ineffective at current rates of legal immigration, but that increased legalization rates would amplify the deterrent effects of deportation. We also show that a temporary work visa program would yield similar deterrent effects as an increase in permanent legalization without resulting in very large increases in the total stock of migrants residing in the U.S. These findings have important implications for structuring future immigration reforms.

Keywords: Unauthorized immigration; Mexico; Visa policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Working Paper: How do U.S. Visa Policies Affect Unauthorized Immigration? (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:113:y:2020:i:c:p:92-108

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.001

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