The Phillips multiplier

Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, vol. 117, issue C, 689-705

Abstract: The Phillips multiplier is a statistic to non-parametrically characterize the central bank inflation-unemployment trade-off. Inference on the Phillips multiplier is based on a simple instrumental variable regression of cumulative inflation on cumulative unemployment using monetary shocks as instruments. We compute the Phillips multiplier for the US and the UK and document that the trade-off went from being large in the pre-1990 sample period to being small (but significant) post-1990. In contrast to earlier evidence of a flattening of the slope of Phillips curve, the decline in the trade-off is mostly due to the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Keywords: Inflation-Unemployment trade-off; Dynamic multiplier; Instrumental variables; Weak-instrument robust methods; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C32 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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Working Paper: The Phillips Multiplier (2019)
Working Paper: The Phillips Multiplier (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:117:y:2021:i:c:p:689-705

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.04.005

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