Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know

Jan Hatzius

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, vol. 148, issue S

Abstract: We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio.

Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; Macroeconomics; Covid (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:148:y:2024:i:s:s0304393224001090

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656

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