 Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020Mai Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, vol. 148, issue S Abstract: This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks—deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased. Keywords: Inflation; Inflation shocks; Core inflation; Median inflation; Labor market tightness; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:148:y:2024:i:s:s0304393224001119 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103658 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Monetary Economics is currently edited by R. G. King and C. I. Plosser More articles in Journal of Monetary Economics from Elsevier |
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