EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics

Alisdair McKay ()

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017, vol. 88, issue C, 1-14

Abstract: Long-term earnings losses for displaced workers are large and counter-cyclical. Similarly, the skewness of earnings growth rates is strongly pro-cyclical. This paper presents an incomplete markets business cycle model in which idiosyncratic risk varies over time in accordance with these empirical findings. These dynamics of idiosyncratic risk give rise to a cyclical precautionary savings motive that substantially raises the volatility of aggregate consumption growth. According to the model, idiosyncratic risk spiked during the Great Recession, leading to a substantial decline in aggregate consumption.

Keywords: Consumption; Idiosyncratic risk; Incomplete markets; Business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393217300430
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Monetary Economics is currently edited by R. G. King and C. I. Plosser

More articles in Journal of Monetary Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

 
Page updated 2019-07-20
Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14