Oil consumption, economic growth, and oil futures: The impact of long-run oil supply uncertainty on asset prices
Robert C. Ready
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, vol. 94, issue C, 1-26
High levels of uncertainty about long-run oil supplies from 2005 to 2012 coincided with significant changes in oil futures markets. Motivated by this fact, this paper provides new evidence on the relations between oil consumption, oil prices, and economic growth, and builds on this evidence to develop a quantitative real business cycle model to study oil price risk. Calibrated model results can match relations between oil prices and economic quantities, and can rationalize behavior in equity and futures markets over this period as a consequence of changing risk premia driven by an increase in long-run oil supply uncertainty.
Keywords: Oil prices; Production-based asset pricing; Long-run risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 E02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:1-26
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Monetary Economics is currently edited by R. G. King and C. I. Plosser
More articles in Journal of Monetary Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().