Solution of deterministic–stochastic epidemic models by dynamical Monte Carlo method

O.e Aièllo, V.j Haas, M.A.a daSilva and A Caliri

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2000, vol. 282, issue 3, 546-558

Abstract: This work is concerned with dynamical Monte Carlo (MC) method and its application to models originally formulated in a continuous-deterministic approach. Specifically, a susceptible–infected–removed–susceptible (SIRS) model is used in order to analyze aspects of the dynamical MC algorithm and achieve its applications in epidemic contexts. We first examine two known approaches to the dynamical interpretation of the MC method and follow with the application of one of them in the SIRS model. The working method chosen is based on the Poisson process where hierarchy of events, properly calculated waiting time between events, and independence of the events simulated, are the basic requirements. To verify the consistence of the method, some preliminary MC results are compared against exact steady-state solutions and other general numerical results (provided by Runge–Kutta method): good agreement is found. Finally, a space-dependent extension of the SIRS model is introduced and treated by MC. The results are interpreted under and in accordance with aspects of the herd-immunity concept.

Keywords: Epidemics; Monte Carlo; SIRS model; Hierarchy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437100000807
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:282:y:2000:i:3:p:546-558

DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(00)00080-7

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().