2000–2003 real estate bubble in the UK but not in the USA

Wei-Xing Zhou and Didier Sornette

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2003, vol. 329, issue 1, 249-263

Abstract: In the aftermath of the burst of the “new economy” bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than 2 years from 61/2 to 11/4% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US economy. But, there is growing apprehension that this is creating a new bubble in real estate, as strong housing demand is fuelled by historically low mortgage rates. Are we going from Charybdis to Scylla? This question is all the more excruciating at a time when many other indicators suggest a significant deflationary risk. Using economic data, Federal Reserve Chairman A. Greenspan and Governor D.L. Kohn dismissed recently this possibility. Using the theory of critical phenomena resulting from positive feedbacks in markets, we confirm this view point for the US but find that mayhem may be in store for the UK: we unearth the unmistakable signatures (log-periodicity and power law super-exponential acceleration) of a strong unsustainable bubble there, which could burst around the end of the year 2003.

Keywords: Real estate; Bubble; Econophysics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:329:y:2003:i:1:p:249-263

DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00600-9

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