Oscillating epidemics: a discrete-time model

A. Ramani, A.S. Carstea, R. Willox and B. Grammaticos

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, vol. 333, issue C, 278-292

Abstract: We study a model of an epidemic where the individuals which are cured from the infection are not permanently immunised but have a finite probability of becoming reinfected. We show that the epidemic does not follow the usual pattern of growth and decay but rather oscillates towards an “endemic” fixed point, where a certain number of infectives may persist. We present a discrete-time version of the model which may also serve as an integrator of the continuous-time one. An appropriate choice of the discrete system allows the derivation of a cellular-automaton version, which incorporates the essential dynamical behaviour of the model.

Keywords: Population dynamics; Epidemic; Discrete-time; Cellular automaton (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:333:y:2004:i:c:p:278-292

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2003.10.051

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