Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases

Corrado Di Guilmi, Edoardo Gaffeo and Mauro Gallegati

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, vol. 333, issue C, 325-334

Abstract: We study the size distribution of business cycles phases, that is expansions and contractions, for a sample of 16 industrialized countries over 120 years. We find that the best-fitting distribution for both expansions and contractions is Weibull, meaning that business cycles possess a characteristic scale. Furthermore, we discuss how parameters’ estimates can be used to make inference on the probability a typical episode ends, that is on what economists call turning points.

Keywords: Business cycles; Weibull distribution; Predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:333:y:2004:i:c:p:325-334

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2003.10.022

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