Stability analysis and stabilization strategies for linear supply chains

Takashi Nagatani and Dirk Helbing

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, vol. 335, issue 3, 644-660

Abstract: Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as “bull-whip effect”. Here, we study several conceivable production strategies to stabilize supply chains, which is expressed by different specifications of the management function controlling the production speed in dependence of the stock levels. In particular, we will investigate, whether the reaction to stock levels of other producers or suppliers has a stabilizing effect. We will also demonstrate that the anticipation of future stock levels can stabilize the supply system, given the forecast horizon τ is long enough. To show this, we derive linear stability conditions and carry out simulations for different control strategies. The results indicate that the linear stability analysis is a helpful tool for the judgement of the stabilization effect, although unexpected deviations can occur in the non-linear regime. There are also signs of phase transitions and chaotic behavior, but this remains to be investigated more thoroughly in the future.

Keywords: Supply chains; Bull-whip effect; Stop-and-go traffic; Stability analysis; Non-linear dynamics; Phase transitions; Stabilization strategies; Forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:335:y:2004:i:3:p:644-660

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2003.12.020

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