Can one make any crash prediction in finance using the local Hurst exponent idea?

D Grech and Z Mazur

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, vol. 336, issue 1, 133-145

Abstract: We apply the Hurst exponent idea for investigation of DJIA index time-series data. The behavior of the local Hurst exponent prior to drastic changes in financial series signal is analyzed. The optimal length of the time-window over which this exponent can be calculated in order to make some meaningful predictions is discussed. Our prediction hypothesis is verified with examples of 1929 and 1987 crashes, as well as with more recent phenomena in stock market from the period 1995 to 2003. Some interesting agreements are found.

Keywords: Econophysics; Time series; Correlations; Brownian motion; Scaling laws; Hurst exponent (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (127)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:336:y:2004:i:1:p:133-145

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.01.018

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