A numerical investigation of discrete oscillating epidemic models

D’Innocenzo, A., F. Paladini and L. Renna

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, vol. 364, issue C, 497-512

Abstract: Two discrete-time deterministic epidemic models are analysed numerically in order to determine their properties and evolutions. One of the models is formulated as discrete-time approximation of a corresponding continuous-time model. Restrictive assumptions are made on the parameters of the models, in order to guarantee that the transitions are determined by true probabilities, so that comparisons with stochastic discrete-time previsions can be also provided. The conditions that lead to periodicity in the infectious disease are investigated. It is found that the epidemic oscillates when a small fraction of individuals became not permanently immunised. Smaller the probability that a recovered becomes susceptible, generally larger the period of the oscillations in the infected population.

Keywords: Population dynamics; Epidemic; Discrete-time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:364:y:2006:i:c:p:497-512

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.08.063

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