A new analysis of intermittence, scale invariance and characteristic scales applied to the behavior of financial indices near a crash

Maria Cristina Mariani and Yang Liu

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, vol. 367, issue C, 345-352

Abstract: This work is devoted to the study of the relation between intermittence and scale invariance, and applications to the behavior of financial indices near a crash. We developed a numerical analysis that predicts the critical date of a financial index, and we apply the model to the analysis of several financial indices. We were able to obtain optimum values for the critical date, corresponding to the most probable date of the crash. We only used data from before the true crash date in order to obtain the predicted critical date. The good numerical results validate the model.

Keywords: Econophysics; Scale invariance; Intermittence; Stock market prices; Financial indices; Crashes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:367:y:2006:i:c:p:345-352

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.11.047

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