Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic

Ryo Fujie and Takashi Odagaki

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2007, vol. 374, issue 2, 843-852

Abstract: Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation.

Keywords: SARS; Superspreader; SIR model; Epidemic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:374:y:2007:i:2:p:843-852

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050

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