Detrending the realized volatility in the global FX market

Anatoly B. Schmidt

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2009, vol. 388, issue 9, 1887-1892

Abstract: There has been growing interest in realized volatility (RV) of financial assets that is calculated using intra-day returns. The choice of optimal time grid for these calculations is not trivial and generally requires analysis of RV dependence on the grid spacing (so-called RV signature). Typical RV signatures have a maximum at the finest time grid spacing available, which is attributed to the microstructure effects. This maximum decays into a plateau at lower frequencies, which implies (almost) stationary return variance. We found that the RV signatures in the modern global FX market may have no plateau or even have a maximum at lower frequencies. Simple averaging methods used to address the microstructure effects in equities have no practical effect on the FX RV signatures. We show that local detrending of the high-frequency FX rate samples yields RV signatures with a pronounced plateau. This implies that FX rates can be described with a Brownian motion having non-stationary trend and stationary variance. We point at a role of algorithmic trading as a possible cause of micro-trends in FX rates.

Keywords: FX market; Realized volatility; Micro-trends; Detrending (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437109000843
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:9:p:1887-1892

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.029

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().