Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis

Roberto da Silva, Marcelo Zembrzuski, Fabio C. Correa and Luis C. Lamb

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2010, vol. 389, issue 23, 5460-5467

Abstract: We show that the current economic crisis has led the market to exhibit a non-critical behavior. We do so by analyzing the quantitative parameters of time series from the main assets of the Brazilian Stock Market BOVESPA. By monitoring global persistence we show a deviation of power law behavior during the crisis in a strong analogy with spin systems (from where this concept was originally conceived). Such behavior is corroborated by an emergent heavy tail of absolute return distribution and also by the magnitude autocorrelation exponent. Comparisons with universal exponents obtained in the international stock markets are also performed. This suggests how a thorough analysis of suitable exponents can bring a possible way of forecasting market crises characterized by non-criticality.

Keywords: Critical phenomena in economic markets; Persistence; Econophysics; Stylized facts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:23:p:5460-5467

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.08.021

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