A reflexive toy-model for financial market

Luigi Palatella

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2010, vol. 389, issue 2, 315-322

Abstract: We propose a reflexive toy model for market dynamics, based on the idea that existing reflexive loops are generated by the conviction, shared by many market operators, that a certain price follows a certain model. Their trading behaviour will therefore increase the probability that the model predictions are in fact fulfilled. We analytically write the equations generating a reflexive loop stemming from a simple linear regression model, and we show that the resulting toy model yields a peculiar intermittent behavior. The presence of two unstable fixed points is apparent from our numerical calculation and the residence-time distribution density in these points asymptotically follows an inverse-power-law tail. The exponent of this tail, as well as the scaling properties of the model output, are close to those stemming from real-price time series.

Keywords: Soros’ theory of reflexivity; Intermittency; Diffusion entropy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:2:p:315-322

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.09.037

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