A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

Li Liu and Jieqiu Wan

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2011, vol. 390, issue 21, 3754-3766

Abstract: In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547–1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243–250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

Keywords: Crude oil spot and futures markets; Exceedance correlations; Asymmetries; Cross-correlations; Rolling sample test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:21:p:3754-3766

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.06.001

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