Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge

Yuri Biondi, Pierpaolo Giannoccolo and Serge Galam

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2012, vol. 391, issue 22, 5532-5545

Abstract: Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique “true value” and deals with the formation of share market prices through the dynamic formation of individual and social opinions (or beliefs) based upon a fundamental signal of economic performance and position of the firm, the forecast revision by heterogeneous individual investors, and their social mood or sentiment about the ongoing state of the market pricing process. Market clearing price formation is then featured by individual and group dynamics that make its collective dimension irreducible to its individual level. This dynamic holistic approach can be applied to better understand the market exuberance generated by the Share Exchange over time.

Keywords: Opinion dynamics; Sociophysics; Econophysics; Reaction–diffusion; Bubble formation; Market dynamics; Market price formation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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Working Paper: The formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:22:p:5532-5545

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2012.06.015

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