A model of political voting behaviours across different countries

Jessica Rowden, David J.B. Lloyd and Nigel Gilbert

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2014, vol. 413, issue C, 609-625

Abstract: This paper analyses, models mathematically, and compares national voting behaviours across seven democratic countries that have a long term election history, focusing on re-election rates, leaders’ reputation with voters and the importance of friends’ and family influence. Based on the data, we build a Markov model to test and explore national voting behaviour, showing voters are only influenced by the most recent past election. The seven countries can be divided into those in which there is a high probability that leaders will be re-elected and those in which incumbents have relatively less success.

Keywords: Sociophysics; Voting behaviour; Hierarchical system; Statistical model; Complex science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:413:y:2014:i:c:p:609-625

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.022

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