A new kinetic model to discuss the control of panic spreading in emergency

Guanghua Chen, Huizhang Shen, Guangming Chen, Teng Ye, Xiangbin Tang and Naphtali Kerr

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2015, vol. 417, issue C, 345-357

Abstract: Individual panic behavior during an emergency is contagious. It often leads to collective panic behavior, which can be disruptive and even disastrous if handled incorrectly. In this paper, a novel kinetic model is developed to describe the dynamics of panic spreading in a real emergency. The global dynamics of the proposed model are analyzed by using the method of Lyapunov function and the Poincarè–Bendixson property, and the obtained theoretical results are numerically validated. The Runge–Kutta method is used for numerical simulations, and these simulations are used to investigate the impact of corresponding management strategies on the containment of individual panic behavior. Meanwhile, the implications of these simulation results are discussed with the “2011 Xiangshui chemical explosion rumor” event. Finally, some recommendations for emergency management agencies are put forward by us to reduce individual panic behavior.

Keywords: Panic spreading model; Stability analysis; Chemical explosion rumor; Emergency management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:417:y:2015:i:c:p:345-357

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.055

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