Evidence in support of seismic hazard following Poisson distribution

J.P. Wang and Su-Chin Chang

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2015, vol. 424, issue C, 207-216

Abstract: Unlike earthquake frequency that was proved following the Poisson distribution, seismic hazard (the annual rate of earthquake ground motions) is assumed to be the same type of random variables without tangible support. Instead of using total-probability algorithms currently employed, this study applied Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain the probability function of seismic hazard, and then compared it to the Poisson distribution to see if it is really close to the model prediction as assumed. On the basis of a benchmark calculation, the analysis shows a very good agreement between the two, providing some evidence for the first time that seismic hazard should follow the Poisson distribution, although the relationship has been commonly employed in earthquake studies.

Keywords: Seismic hazard; The Poisson distribution; Monte Carlo Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:424:y:2015:i:c:p:207-216

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.01.026

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