Predicting item popularity: Analysing local clustering behaviour of users

Jessica Liebig and Asha Rao

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, vol. 442, issue C, 523-531

Abstract: Predicting the popularity of items in rating networks is an interesting but challenging problem. This is especially so when an item has first appeared and has received very few ratings. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to predicting the future popularity of new items in rating networks, defining a new bipartite clustering coefficient to predict the popularity of movies and stories in the MovieLens and Digg networks respectively. We show that the clustering behaviour of the first user who rates a new item gives insight into the future popularity of that item. Our method predicts, with a success rate of over 65% for the MovieLens network and over 50% for the Digg network, the future popularity of an item. This is a major improvement on current results.

Keywords: Bipartite networks; Clustering coefficient; Rating networks; Popularity prediction; Ego networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:442:y:2016:i:c:p:523-531

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.08.045

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