The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea

Darae Jeong, Chang Hyeong Lee, Yongho Choi and Junseok Kim

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, vol. 451, issue C, 190-197

Abstract: In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler’s method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R0,k,ωn, the parameters n, k, and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.

Keywords: MERS-CoV; SIR model; Explicit Euler’s method; Optimal parameter fitting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:451:y:2016:i:c:p:190-197

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072

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