Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission

Yoshiharu Maeno

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, vol. 457, issue C, 73-81

Abstract: A method for a system of Langevin equations is developed for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission. The equations represent a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method analyzes a time series of the number of new cases reported in multiple geographical regions. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the implemented public health intervention in managing infectious travelers across borders. It is found that the change point of the probability of travel movements was one week after the WHO worldwide alert on the SARS outbreak in 2003. The alert was effective in managing infectious travelers. On the other hand, it is found that the probability of travel movements did not change at all for the flu pandemic in 2009. The pandemic did not affect potential travelers despite the WHO alert.

Keywords: Change point; Epidemic transmission; Langevin equation; Meta-population network; Public health intervention; SIR compartment model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116300371
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:457:y:2016:i:c:p:73-81

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.039

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().