Long-range Ising model for credit portfolios with heterogeneous credit exposures

Kensuke Kato

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, vol. 462, issue C, 1103-1119

Abstract: We propose the finite-size long-range Ising model as a model for heterogeneous credit portfolios held by a financial institution in the view of econophysics. The model expresses the heterogeneity of the default probability and the default correlation by dividing a credit portfolio into multiple sectors characterized by credit rating and industry. The model also expresses the heterogeneity of the credit exposure, which is difficult to evaluate analytically, by applying the replica exchange Monte Carlo method to numerically calculate the loss distribution. To analyze the characteristics of the loss distribution for credit portfolios with heterogeneous credit exposures, we apply this model to various credit portfolios and evaluate credit risk. As a result, we show that the tail of the loss distribution calculated by this model has characteristics that are different from the tail of the loss distribution of the standard models used in credit risk modeling. We also show that there is a possibility of different evaluations of credit risk according to the pattern of heterogeneity.

Keywords: Long-range Ising model; Heterogeneous credit exposure; Credit risk modeling; Replica exchange Monte Carlo; Loss distribution; Econophysics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:462:y:2016:i:c:p:1103-1119

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.06.127

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