Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

Kumer Pial Das and Asim Kumer Dey

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, vol. 463, issue C, 345-355

Abstract: Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

Keywords: Aviation accident; Extreme value model; Return level; Uncertainty; Bootstrap sampling; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:463:y:2016:i:c:p:345-355

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.023

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