Measurement and multifractal properties of short-term international capital flows in China

Ye Ning, Yiming Wang, Zhenyu Yang and Yan Geng

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, vol. 468, issue C, 714-721

Abstract: The paper measures monthly short-term international capital flows during Jan. 2000 to Jul. 2015 in China. It is shown that, since mid-2014 the amount of short-term international capital outflows in China has increased rapidly, reaching the historical peak at 65.8 billion dollars per month in July, 2015. By conducting multifractal analysis with MF-DFA method, it is proved that China’s short-term international capital flows exhibit significant non-linear multifractal properties. Further study indicates that the long-range correlations and fat-tailed distribution both contribute to the multifractal properties, while the former is the main reason. The non-linearity of capital flows calls for non-linear tools instead of conventional linear tools to further study features of China’s short-term international capital flows or to build early warning system of international capital flow risks. The paper measures monthly short-term international capital flows during Jan. 2000 to Jul. 2015 in China. It is shown that, since mid-2014 the amount of short-term international capital outflows in China has increased rapidly, reaching the historical peak at 65.8 billion dollars per month in July, 2015. By conducting multifractal analysis with MF-DFA method, it is proved that China’s short-term international capital flows exhibit significant non-linear multifractal properties. Further study indicates that the long-range correlations and fat-tailed distribution both contribute to the multifractal properties, while the former is the main reason. The non-linearity of capital flows calls for non-linear tools instead of conventional linear tools to further study features of China’s short-term international capital flows or to build early warning system of international capital flow risks.

Keywords: Short-term international capital; MF-DFA; Multifractal analysis; Long-range correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:468:y:2017:i:c:p:714-721

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.10.063

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