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Volatility measurement with directional change in Chinese stock market: Statistical property and investment strategy

Junjun Ma, Xiong Xiong, Feng He and Wei Zhang

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, vol. 471, issue C, 169-180

Abstract: The stock price fluctuation is studied in this paper with intrinsic time perspective. The event, directional change (DC) or overshoot, are considered as time scale of price time series. With this directional change law, its corresponding statistical properties and parameter estimation is tested in Chinese stock market. Furthermore, a directional change trading strategy is proposed for invest in the market portfolio in Chinese stock market, and both in-sample and out-of-sample performance are compared among the different method of model parameter estimation. We conclude that DC method can capture important fluctuations in Chinese stock market and gain profit due to the statistical property that average upturn overshoot size is bigger than average downturn directional change size. The optimal parameter of DC method is not fixed and we obtained 1.8% annual excess return with this DC-based trading strategy.

Keywords: Intrinsic time; Directional change; Statistical property; Trading strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

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