A model-free characterization of recurrences in stationary time series
Rémy Chicheportiche and
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, vol. 474, issue C, 312-318
Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. Most of the previous phenomenological studies of recurrences have involved only a long-ranged autocorrelation function, and ignored the multi-scaling properties induced by potential higher order dependencies. We argue that copulas is a natural model-free framework to study non-linear dependencies in time series and related concepts like recurrences. Consequently, we arrive at the facts that (i) non-linear dependences do impact both the statistics and dynamics of recurrence times, and (ii) the scaling arguments for the unconditional distribution may not be applicable. Hence, fitting and/or simulating the intertemporal distribution of recurrence intervals is very much system specific, and cannot actually benefit from universal features, in contrast to the previous claims. This has important implications in epilepsy prognosis and financial risk management applications.
Keywords: Recurrence intervals; Copulas; Long-ranged correlations; Time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:474:y:2017:i:c:p:312-318
Access Statistics for this article
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis
More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().