The threshold of a stochastic avian–human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

Fengrong Zhang and Xinhong Zhang

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 492, issue C, 485-495

Abstract: In this paper, a stochastic avian–human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian–human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Keywords: Avian influenza; Persistence in the mean; Stationary distribution; Extinction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:492:y:2018:i:c:p:485-495

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.10.043

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