Forecasting Construction Cost Index based on visibility graph: A network approach

Rong Zhang, Baabak Ashuri, Yu Shyr and Yong Deng

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 493, issue C, 239-252

Abstract: Engineering News-Record (ENR), a professional magazine in the field of global construction engineering, publishes Construction Cost Index (CCI) every month. Cost estimators and contractors assess projects, arrange budgets and prepare bids by forecasting CCI. However, fluctuations and uncertainties of CCI cause irrational estimations now and then. This paper aims at achieving more accurate predictions of CCI based on a network approach in which time series is firstly converted into a visibility graph and future values are forecasted relied on link prediction. According to the experimental results, the proposed method shows satisfactory performance since the error measures are acceptable. Compared with other methods, the proposed method is easier to implement and is able to forecast CCI with less errors. It is convinced that the proposed method is efficient to provide considerably accurate CCI predictions, which will make contributions to the construction engineering by assisting individuals and organizations in reducing costs and making project schedules.

Keywords: Forecasting; Time series; Visibility graph; Link prediction; CCI (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:493:y:2018:i:c:p:239-252

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.10.052

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