Statistical analysis of Brazilian electoral campaigns via Benford’s law

Daniel Gamermann and Felipe Leite Antunes

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 496, issue C, 171-188

Abstract: The principle of democracy is that the people govern through elected representatives. Therefore, a democracy is healthy as long as the elected politicians do represent the people. We have analyzed data from the Brazilian electoral court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) concerning money donations for the electoral campaigns and the election results. Our work points to two conclusions that combined may be in conflict with the democratic principle: money is the determining factor on whether a candidate is elected or not (opposed to representativeness); secondly, the use of Benford’s Law to analyze the declared donations received by the parties and electoral campaigns shows either possible manipulations in the declarations or a significant number of donations that might not have been spontaneous from the donors. The better term that describes Brazil’s government system is plutocracy (govern by the wealthy).

Keywords: Benford’s law; Logistic regression; Electoral campaign; Politics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:496:y:2018:i:c:p:171-188

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.120

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