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Bias correction in the realized stochastic volatility model for daily volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Tetsuya Takaishi

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 500, issue C, 139-154

Abstract: The realized stochastic volatility model has been introduced to estimate more accurate volatility by using both daily returns and realized volatility. The main advantage of the model is that no special bias-correction factor for the realized volatility is required a priori. Instead, the model introduces a bias-correction parameter responsible for the bias hidden in realized volatility. We empirically investigate the bias-correction parameter for realized volatilities calculated at various sampling frequencies for six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and then show that the dynamic behavior of the bias-correction parameter as a function of sampling frequency is qualitatively similar to that of the Hansen–Lunde bias-correction factor although their values are substantially different. Under the stochastic diffusion assumption of the return dynamics, we investigate the accuracy of estimated volatilities by examining the standardized returns. We find that while the moments of the standardized returns from low-frequency realized volatilities are consistent with the expectation from the Gaussian variables, the deviation from the expectation becomes considerably large at high frequencies. This indicates that the realized stochastic volatility model itself cannot completely remove bias at high frequencies.

Keywords: Realized volatility; Realized stochastic volatility model; Hybrid Monte Carlo method; High-frequency data; Market microstructure noise (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:500:y:2018:i:c:p:139-154