Epidemic outbreaks and its control using a fractional order model with seasonality and stochastic infection

Shaobo He and Santo Banerjee

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 501, issue C, 408-417

Abstract: A fractional-order SIR epidemic model is proposed under the influence of both parametric seasonality and the external noise. The integer order SIR epidemic model originally is stable. By introducing seasonality and noise force to the model, behaviors of the system is changed. It is shown that the system has rich dynamical behaviors with different system parameters, fractional derivative order and the degree of seasonality and noise. Complexity of the stochastic model is investigated by using multi-scale fuzzy entropy. Finally, hard limiter controlled system is designed and simulation results show the ratio of infected individuals can converge to a small enough target ρ, which means the epidemic outbreak can be under control by the implementation of some effective medical and health measures.

Keywords: Epidemic model; Fractional order derivative; Complexity; Control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:501:y:2018:i:c:p:408-417

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.045

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