Model falsifiability and climate slow modes

Christopher Essex and Anastasios A. Tsonis

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 502, issue C, 554-562

Abstract: The most advanced climate models are actually modified meteorological models attempting to capture climate in meteorological terms. This seems a straightforward matter of raw computing power applied to large enough sources of current data. Some believe that models have succeeded in capturing climate in this manner. But have they? This paper outlines difficulties with this picture that derive from the finite representation of our computers, and the fundamental unavailability of future data instead. It suggests that alternative windows onto the multi-decadal timescales are necessary in order to overcome the issues raised for practical problems of prediction.

Keywords: Climate complexity; Computer errors; Computational over-stabilization; Dynamical and thermodynamical sensitivity; Slow climate modes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:502:y:2018:i:c:p:554-562

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.090

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