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Herding boosts too-connected-to-fail risk in stock market of China

Shan Lu, Jichang Zhao, Huiwen Wang and Ruoen Ren

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 505, issue C, 945-964

Abstract: The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and accordingly miss the exact knowledge of how panic contagion leads to abrupt crash. In this paper, by networking stocks of sharing common mutual funds, a new methodology of investigating the market crash is presented. It is surprisingly revealed that the herding, which origins in the mimic of seeking for high diversity across investment strategies to lower individual risk, will produce too-connected-to-fail stocks and reluctantly boosts the systemic risk of the entire market. Though too-connected stocks might be relatively stable during the crisis, they are so influential that a small downward fluctuation will cascade to trigger severe drops of massive successor stocks, implying that their falls might be unexpectedly amplified by the collective panic and result in the market crash. Our findings suggest that the whole picture of portfolio strategy has to be carefully supervised to reshape the stock network.

Keywords: Herding behavior; Complex network; Stock market crash; Systemic risk; Too-connected-to-fail (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

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