The changing economic regimes and expected time to recover of the peripheral countries under the euro: A nonparametric approach

Bruno Damásio, Francisco Louçã and João Nicolau

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, vol. 507, issue C, 524-533

Abstract: A nonparametric method is presented in order to estimate the expected time to cross a threshold on the basis of two assumptions, a Markovian property and stationarity. An empirical application is provided, using this method to investigate the dynamics of the GDP of 16 countries of the European Union for a long period, 1962–2016, and to detect the patterns of growth rates and expected mean reversion time after a negative, i.e a recession, or a positive deviation from the trend. The conclusion supports the hypothesis of an economic regime change in the eurozone, affecting in particular the peripheral countries of southern Europe, ignited by the creation of the common currency.

Keywords: Economic regime change; Economic divergence; Markov chain; Expected hitting times (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:507:y:2018:i:c:p:524-533

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.05.089

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