Economics at your fingertips  

The stylized facts of prediction markets: Analysis of price changes

Valerio Restocchi, Frank McGroarty and Enrico Gerding

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, vol. 515, issue C, 159-170

Abstract: Prediction markets are a powerful tool to make accurate predictions about the outcome of an event and, for this reason, they attract the interest of researchers and practitioners alike. To date, there exist no means of validation for quantitative models of prediction markets. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we compile a list of empirical regularities (stylized facts) of price changes we find by analyzing daily price changes from 3385 prediction markets on political events, a dataset provided by PredictIt. We find that price changes in prediction markets show characteristics similar to emerging markets, with some small differences.

Keywords: Prediction markets; Political markets; Stylized facts; Long memory; Power-law behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-01-19
Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:515:y:2019:i:c:p:159-170