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Investigation of the temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes before the Mexico M8.2 earthquake on 7 September 2017

Nicholas V. Sarlis, Efthimios S. Skordas, Panayiotis A. Varotsos, Ramírez-Rojas, Alejandro and Flores-Márquez, E. Leticia

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, vol. 517, issue C, 475-483

Abstract: By employing Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), which has been established as a standard method to investigate long range correlations in nonstationary time series, we study the temporal correlations between the magnitudes of the earthquakes that occurred before the recent deadly Mexico M8.2 earthquake on 7 September 2017 in Chiapas region. Our aim here is to shed light on the origin of the following precursory phenomenon found in our previous publication (Sarlis et al., 2018): Upon considering the analysis of seismicity in the new time domain termed natural time, it was shown that the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal exhibited an important minimum almost 3 months before this major earthquake. Here the application of DFA to earthquake magnitude time series reveals that this minimum of the entropy change of seismicity is preceded as well as followed by characteristic changes of temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes, which are quantified by the DFA exponent α. In particular, before this minimum the long range correlations breakdown to an almost random behavior possibly turning to anticorrelation (α≤0.5) while after the minimum (and before the major M8.2 earthquake) long range correlations develop with an exponent α between 0.6 and 0.7.

Keywords: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis; Temporal correlations; Natural time of seismicity; Entropy change under time reversal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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