Dynamics of an imprecise SIRS model with Lévy jumps

Kangbo Bao, Qimin Zhang, Libin Rong and Xining Li

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, vol. 520, issue C, 489-506

Abstract: Sudden environmental perturbations may affect population dynamics. Parameters of mathematical models can also be imprecise due to uncertainties and unknown data. How sudden environmental noise and parameter imprecision influence the dynamics of epidemic systems remains unclear. This paper studies a stochastic Susceptible–Infected–Recovered–Susceptible (SIRS) model that includes Lévy jumps and interval parameters. We prove that the model has a unique global positive solution. Sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction of the disease are obtained. Large noise intensity is able to suppress the emergence of disease outbreaks. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the influence of stochastic noise on disease dynamics. These results suggest that Lévy jumps and imprecise parameters can greatly affect the long-term behavior of the epidemic system.

Keywords: Stochastic SIRS epidemic model; Lévy jumps; Interval number; Extinction; Persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:520:y:2019:i:c:p:489-506

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.027

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