Regional contrasting DTR’s predictability over China

Shu Fu, Yu Huang, Tao Feng, Da Nian and Zuntao Fu

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, vol. 521, issue C, 282-292

Abstract: Predictability is an important topic in weather and climate studies. Model-free and model-based quantification of diurnal temperature range (DTR) time series predictability is provided in this paper. Both intrinsic predictability quantified by the permutation entropy and realizable predictability defined by the model’s forecasting error are studied on DTR fluctuations. The intrinsic predictability tells us whether there are more predictive structures in DTR fluctuations and to what extent the maximal predictability can be reached. The realizable predictability measures the degree of prediction to which adopted model reaches. Results show that there is a well defined regime-dependent pattern between the intrinsic predictability and the realizable predictability in DTR fluctuations, and both the intrinsic predictability and the realizable predictability in DTR fluctuations over China are overall South–North (with the dividing line around the latitude of 37°N and almost along the Yellow River, and south and north to this line are called southern China and northern China in this study) asymmetric with higher predictability in southern China and weaker predictability in northern China. This South–North contrasting predictability behavior is closely related to the DTR’s South–North asymmetric multi-fractal behavior.

Keywords: Diurnal temperature range; Intrinsic predictability; Realizable predictability; Permutation entropy; Forecasting error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119300779
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:521:y:2019:i:c:p:282-292

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.077

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().