The role of mobility in epidemic dynamics

Andreia N.S. Hisi, Elbert E.N. Macau and Luiz H.G. Tizei

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, vol. 526, issue C

Abstract: Here we modeled and simulated disease spreading by means of a mechanistic stochastic model on metapopulations. Different network sizes, mobility rates and immunity duration for a susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible (SIRS) like process are systematically explored. A transitory behavior was identified in the pathogen persistence where the mobility rate plays an unexpected role in the epidemic spread: a peak in the persistence relative to the mobility rate grow observed is closely related to the susceptible individuals’ density. This effect predicts a threshold invasion process which indicates critical values where the epidemic spreading dies out or persists. We showed that the decrease in the hosts abundance reduces the epidemic’s lifetime. These results point out new information about epidemic spreading and may give insights to improve decision making policies concerning travel restrictions strategies.

Keywords: Spatially structured epidemic spreading; Phase transition; Endemic thresholds (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119302559
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:526:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119302559

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.03.028

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().