A periodic malaria model with two delays

Yan Zhang, Sanyang Liu and Zhenguo Bai

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2020, vol. 541, issue C

Abstract: Malaria is the world’s most prevalent mosquito-borne disease caused by Plasmodium parasites, and responsible for over half a million deaths per year. To understand the effects of the intrinsic and extrinsic incubation periods of the parasite within the humans and mosquitoes, respectively, and the seasonality on disease transmission, we propose a periodic malaria model with delays. The basic reproduction number R0 is derived, and it is shown that R0 is a threshold parameter between the extinction and persistence of the disease. In the case where all the coefficients are constants and the intrinsic incubation period is ignored, we also prove the global attractivity of the endemic equilibrium when R0>1. Numerical simulations indicate that prolonging the incubation period in mosquitoes is more effective than prolonging the incubation period in humans for disease control. It is also found that increasing the strength of seasonal forcing will lead to a higher epidemic peak.

Keywords: Malaria model; Basic reproduction number; Time delay; Threshold dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:541:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119318631

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123327

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