Fluctuation analysis of electric power loads in Europe: Correlation multifractality vs. Distribution function multifractality

Hynek Lavička and Jiří Kracík

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2020, vol. 545, issue C

Abstract: We analyzed the timeseries of power loads of 35 separate countries which publicly share hourly data through the ENTSO-E platform for more than 5 years. Moreover we applied Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis for the demonstration of the multifractal nature, autocorrelation and the distribution function fundamentals. Additionally, we improved the basic method described by Kantelhardt, et al using uniform shuffling and surrogation of the datasets in order to prove the robustness of the results with respect to the non-linear effects of the processes. All the datasets exhibited multifractality in the distribution function as well as in the autocorrelation function. The basic differences between individual states are manifested in the width of the multifractal spectra and in the location of the maxima. We present the hypothesis concerning the production portfolio and the export/import dependencies.

Keywords: Electric power loads; MFDFA; Multifractality; Timeseries analysis; Langevin equation; Machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:545:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119321053

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123821

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